Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 26.297535 29.094188 32.274709 36.209256 41.018536 46.807580 54.470437
2025-03-09 22.168022 25.687099 30.034876 35.972561 44.175778 55.655585 74.154616
2025-03-16 19.390479 23.198293 28.188903 35.537534 46.770864 64.822260 100.696573
2025-03-23 17.428467 21.352848 26.732897 35.147898 49.177218 74.865815 139.257829
2025-03-30 15.985843 19.957951 25.604844 34.897295 51.635874 86.455843 200.967883
2025-04-06 14.689312 18.586457 24.273785 33.993553 52.594291 95.719876 283.618876
2025-04-13 14.209041 18.311821 24.521451 35.727521 59.236870 124.641239 675.028885
2025-04-20 13.387467 17.436481 23.696622 35.370922 61.336797 143.554081 1661.129730
2025-04-27 12.793330 16.843965 23.246027 35.607682 64.939362 173.757804 73874.592044
2025-05-04 12.298219 16.355940 22.903326 35.976594 69.087603 216.166509 NaN
2025-05-11 11.816866 15.847233 22.463877 36.059201 72.555234 267.178288 NaN
2025-05-18 11.296677 15.237177 21.784681 35.513935 73.979378 312.624745 NaN
2025-05-25 10.896356 14.800805 21.385005 35.545372 77.469947 402.681995 NaN
2025-06-01 10.485548 14.321006 20.864331 35.224071 79.723717 508.288288 NaN
2025-06-08 10.093718 13.849130 20.318692 34.763175 81.355695 641.961295 NaN
2025-06-15 9.743301 13.426508 19.830914 34.369350 83.166369 846.909986 NaN
2025-06-22 9.438019 13.063074 19.426176 34.119741 85.557458 1224.099837 NaN
2025-06-29 9.085888 12.602610 18.804099 33.245595 84.885154 1500.809118 NaN
2025-07-06 9.032248 12.648305 19.158478 34.913333 97.247843 14803.338451 NaN
2025-07-13 8.775116 12.328025 18.769905 34.569399 99.433834 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.590392 12.125113 18.600248 34.796860 105.134871 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.428537 11.954199 18.481948 35.151598 112.145697 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.251571 11.748076 18.277077 35.230979 117.704183 NaN NaN